tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:14 pm at Nashville); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 603 Southwest BNA 22:46 LIT 00:10 26% 4% 0.1% no record
WN 4687 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:40 LIT 23:55 30% 4% 0.1% 51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:45 → ORD 17:33AA 2500 2h 26m Chicago ORD 19:59 → LIT 21:59AA 3561 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:57 → CLT 20:18AA 519 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy 5h 59m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:36 → DFW 18:53AA 1522 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → LIT 23:51AA 3750 · flown by Envoy 7h 15m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:15 → DAL 19:10WN 5071 2h 32m Dallas DAL 21:42 → LIT 23:02WN 172 5h 47m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 90% 72%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701 6h 43m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 2h 26m Chicago ORD 21:26 → LIT 23:18UA 4542 · flown by GoJet 6h 19m 88% 66%
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:45 → DFW 20:02AA 1496 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:04 → LIT 23:23AA 3362 · flown by Envoy 5h 38m 80% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1497 51m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy 4h 37m 50% 41%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 56m Chicago ORD 21:26 → LIT 23:18UA 4542 · flown by GoJet 4h 54m 52% 39%
AmericanDetails → BNA 14:23 → LGA 17:44AA 2302 56m New York LGA 18:40 → LIT 21:13AA 4644 · flown by Republic 6h 50m 57% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON