Today: WN 606 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet today WN 606 BNA 08:10 → MCI 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4625 BNA 15:00 → MCI 16:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 606 Southwest	BNA 08:10	MCI 10:01	11%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4289 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:15	MCI 09:55	11%	1%	0.2%	82%
WN 614 Southwest	BNA 22:15	MCI 00:05	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 563 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:35	MCI 00:15	17%	5%	0.5%	46%
WN 611 Southwest	BNA 18:56	MCI 20:46	22%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 5063 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:30	MCI 14:10	26%	3%	0.2%	75%
WN 2778 Southwest	BNA 11:40	MCI 13:30	28%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 609 Southwest	BNA 15:25	MCI 17:16	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4625 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:00	MCI 16:40	33%	5%	0.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON