Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 888 at 09:12, 9%.

Safest bet today WN 888 BNA 09:12 → MCO 12:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3560 BNA 17:05 → MCO 20:19 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 888 Southwest	BNA 09:12	MCO 12:11	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4712 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:15	MCO 12:10	9%	2%	0.2%	90%
WN 568 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	MCO 13:10	13%	2%	0.2%	74%
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 09:24	MCO 12:27	21%	8%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
WN 626 Southwest	BNA 12:00	MCO 14:59	21%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 4714 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:40	MCO 15:40	25%	4%	0.3%	61%
WN 642 Southwest	BNA 21:03	MCO 00:02	30%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 2808 Southwest	BNA 15:00	MCO 17:59	35%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 572 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	MCO 23:35	37%	8%	1.0%	56%
WN 787 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:00	MCO 20:05	44%	8%	0.4%	40%
WN 3343 Southwest	BNA 16:35	MCO 19:34	45%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 4584 Southwest	BNA 17:55	MCO 20:54	45%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	BNA 18:55	MCO 21:54	46%	8%	0.5%	no record
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:05	MCO 20:19	47%	19%	1.0%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON