Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 643 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 643 BNA 05:22 → MDW 07:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4286 BNA 20:25 → MDW 22:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 643 Southwest	BNA 05:22	MDW 07:07	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 573 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:05	MDW 06:40	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 644 Southwest	BNA 07:29	MDW 09:14	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 575 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:45	MDW 12:20	11%	2%	0.5%	44%
WN 578 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:35	MDW 00:10	19%	5%	0.5%	42%
WN 2241 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:15	MDW 17:50	19%	4%	0.4%	27%
WN 4286 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:25	MDW 22:00	20%	5%	0.5%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON