Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:48 am at Nashville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 650 at 22:25, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 650 Southwest	BNA 22:25	MEM 23:33	33%	7%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	6h 58m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	99%	74%
American Details →	BNA 12:45 → DFW 14:58AA 1520	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:47 → MEM 19:27AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	97%	73%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → MEM 23:10WN 4100	6h 55m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12DL 1577	5h 41m	97%	66%
United Details →	BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339	3h 02m Houston	IAH 20:21 → MEM 22:06UA 1794	6h 58m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:10 → MEM 20:35DL 2001	5h 44m	93%	65%
American Details →	BNA 17:56 → CLT 20:18AA 519	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → MEM 23:45AA 2392	5h 49m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 12:52 → DFW 14:34AA 1396	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:23 → MEM 17:18AA 2969	4h 26m	58%	39%
United Details →	BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	4h 57m	50%	33%
American Details →	BNA 16:36 → DFW 18:53AA 1522	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:47 → MEM 21:23AA 2153	4h 47m	49%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON