Today: AA 1521 at 10:39 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet today AA 1521 BNA 10:39 → MIA 14:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 323 BNA 18:38 → MIA 21:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1521 American Flight history →	BNA 10:39	MIA 14:00	13%	4%	0.1%	87%
MQ 4070 Envoy	BNA 10:54	MIA 14:17	13%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2952 Southwest	BNA 12:15	MIA 15:35	16%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 581 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:30	MIA 14:50	16%	3%	0.1%	55%
WN 4779 Southwest	BNA 19:40	MIA 23:00	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 16:32	MIA 19:52	25%	6%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
WN 4575 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:15	MIA 22:40	26%	5%	0.6%	41%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BNA 17:32	MIA 20:59	33%	5%	1.2%	36%
AA 1452 American Flight history →	BNA 18:39	MIA 22:04	34%	4%	1.2%	45%
AA 323 American Flight history →	BNA 18:38	MIA 21:57	35%	4%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON