Today: WN 4780 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet today WN 4780 BNA 08:10 → MKE 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4733 BNA 16:30 → MKE 18:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4780 Southwest	BNA 08:10	MKE 09:49	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 655 Southwest	BNA 14:13	MKE 15:52	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4519 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:40	MKE 00:20	19%	5%	0.6%	60%
WN 4781 Southwest	BNA 22:40	MKE 00:21	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4733 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:30	MKE 18:05	25%	6%	0.5%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON