Today: WN 4822 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4822 BNA 08:20 → MSP 10:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4934 BNA 22:15 → MSP 00:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4822 Southwest	BNA 08:20	MSP 10:32	9%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2160 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:10	MSP 10:15	10%	1%	0.1%	68%
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	11%	3%	0.1%	88%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	16%	3%	0.1%	71%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MSP 20:58	19%	3%	0.1%	78%
WN 4934 Southwest	BNA 22:15	MSP 00:29	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON