Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2457 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2457 BNA 08:16 → MSY 09:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 661 BNA 15:15 → MSY 16:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2457 Southwest	BNA 08:16	MSY 09:56	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 594 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	MSY 09:40	9%	2%	0.8%	92%
WN 660 Southwest	BNA 12:09	MSY 13:49	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 595 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:45	MSY 14:20	22%	4%	0.7%	58%
WN 597 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:50	MSY 00:25	22%	5%	0.7%	53%
WN 4475 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:15	MSY 21:50	25%	6%	0.7%	56%
WN 661 Southwest	BNA 15:15	MSY 16:55	26%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON