Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:55 am at Nashville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4878 at 19:10, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4878 Southwest	BNA 19:10	MYR 21:47	22%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 13:25 → BWI 16:15WN 2994	3h 46m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → MYR 21:42WN 330	7h 17m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371	2h 15m St Louis	STL 16:35 → MYR 19:30WN 3027	5h 25m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	5h 30m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 24m	99%	69%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → MYR 22:50WN 36	5h 35m	91%	66%
American Details →	BNA 12:32 → CLT 15:08AA 5082 · flown by PSA	3h 44m Charlotte	CLT 18:52 → MYR 20:03AA 2886	6h 31m	97%	62%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	5h 29m	91%	62%
American Details →	BNA 12:43 → CLT 15:08AA 5083 · flown by PSA	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 18:32 → MYR 19:42AA 1417	5h 59m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BNA 13:25 → BWI 16:15WN 2994	50m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	4h 10m	67%	50%
American Details →	BNA 13:03 → PHL 16:15AA 3130	58m Philadelphia	PHL 17:13 → MYR 19:09AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	5h 06m	62%	41%
American Details →	BNA 17:56 → CLT 20:18AA 519	54m Charlotte	CLT 21:12 → MYR 22:17AA 1085	3h 21m	61%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON