tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:42 pm at Nashville); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 608 at 22:35, 42%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 608 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:35 OKC 00:30 42% 6% 0.2% 55%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 19:45 → OKC 22:17UA 5392 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:52 → DFW 14:34AA 1396 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → OKC 19:39AA 3727 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:45 → DFW 14:58AA 1520 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:40 → OKC 18:45AA 3729 · flown by Envoy 6h 00m 97% 68%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 13:25 → DEN 15:10WN 503 2h 20m Denver DEN 17:30 → OKC 20:05WN 1653 6h 40m 97% 66%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241 3h 40m Chicago MDW 21:30 → OKC 23:35WN 3881 7h 20m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 7h 21m 99% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:15 → DAL 19:10WN 5071 2h 45m Dallas DAL 21:55 → OKC 23:09WN 4929 5h 54m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:12 → OKC 21:47UA 2304 6h 39m 92% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 53m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 4h 45m 50% 31%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → OKC 19:39AA 3727 · flown by Envoy 4h 08m 42% 30%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 19:55 → MDW 21:39WN 647 46m Chicago MDW 22:25 → OKC 00:35 +1WN 3554 4h 40m 36% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON