Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:32 am at Nashville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3250 at 12:10, 28%.

Nonstops today


WN 3250 Southwest	BNA 12:10	OMA 14:08	28%	3%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → OMA 17:55AA 4724 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → OMA 11:07WN 1705	5h 52m	100%	90%
United Details →	BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396	3h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa	7h 41m	100%	89%
American Details →	BNA 09:04 → ORD 11:00AA 3973 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 14:08 → OMA 15:55AA 4042 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 15:50 → OMA 17:25WN 2945	6h 40m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430	1h 05m Houston	HOU 08:05 → OMA 10:23WN 1788	5h 23m	96%	81%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	1h 16m Denver	DEN 10:11 → OMA 12:55UA 1633	5h 55m	93%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BNA 16:50 → LGA 20:11DL 822	54m New York	LGA 21:05 → OMA 23:35DL 4900 · flown by Endeavor	6h 45m	53%	33%
American Details →	BNA 19:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1497	46m Charlotte	CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 +1AA 961	5h 00m	44%	30%
American Details →	BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:33 → OMA 20:29AA 2167	4h 58m	50%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON