tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:21 am at Nashville)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 855 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:55 ONT 16:00 23% 3% 0.4% 52%
WN 2987 Southwest BNA 16:05 ONT 18:23 27% 5% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:30 → ONT 09:55WN 3001 6h 40m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431 8h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 6h 35m 92% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 08:00 → AUS 10:10WN 4149 1h 35m Austin AUS 11:45 → ONT 12:48WN 553 6h 48m 96% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430 1h 00m Houston HOU 08:00 → ONT 09:21WN 4337 6h 21m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 3h 14m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 50m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674 2h 45m San Jose SJC 20:25 → ONT 21:53WN 862 8h 48m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 19:34 → SLC 22:10DL 2209 49m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 14m 72% 60%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:50 → ONT 19:59AA 2236 6h 28m 70% 41%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → ONT 00:05 +1AA 1695 6h 31m 59% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON