tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 529 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 529 BNA 05:50 → ORD 07:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4679 BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 529 United BNA 05:50 ORD 07:39 8% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 451 United Flight history → BNA 06:00 ORD 07:58 8% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 343 United Flight history → BNA 09:53 ORD 11:54 11% 3% 0.6% 80%
AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → BNA 05:12 ORD 07:04 11% 4% 0.7% 71%
AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BNA 09:04 ORD 11:00 12% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 2439 American BNA 09:06 ORD 10:54 12% 5% 1.2% no record
UA 2465 United Flight history → BNA 07:40 ORD 09:41 12% 3% 0.6% 83%
AA 1105 American BNA 06:53 ORD 08:46 13% 5% 1.2% no record
UA 691 United BNA 09:38 ORD 11:33 13% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 398 United BNA 10:25 ORD 12:24 13% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 3440 United flown by Republic Flight history → BNA 15:01 ORD 17:04 15% 4% 0.7% 55%
AA 3439 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BNA 10:43 ORD 12:39 15% 3% 0.7% 85%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BNA 19:24 ORD 21:21 17% 3% 0.8% 48%
UA 1616 United Flight history → BNA 12:49 ORD 14:50 19% 4% 0.6% 81%
UA 1884 United Flight history → BNA 16:59 ORD 19:00 22% 5% 0.6% 57%
AA 1570 American Flight history → BNA 17:41 ORD 19:55 23% 6% 1.0% 51%
UA 4653 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → BNA 11:15 ORD 13:15 25% 5% 0.7% 87%worse than usual
OO 4991 SkyWest BNA 11:59 ORD 13:51 25% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → BNA 16:01 ORD 18:09 25% 6% 0.8% 58%
UA 4679 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → BNA 18:24 ORD 20:30 25% 6% 0.8% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON