tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 am at Nashville)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1350 Alaska Flight history → BNA 16:43 PDX 19:33 22% 5% 0.6% 72%
AS 522 Alaska BNA 17:01 PDX 19:41 25% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 1h 31m Denver DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:14WN 3459 6h 59m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 9h 18m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:37DL 1661 8h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 32m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 49m Chicago ORD 13:30 → PDX 15:57UA 2817 10h 17m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 1h 02m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 7h 38m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 3h 03m Chicago ORD 20:07 → PDX 22:38UA 2243 9h 37m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → PDX 12:40AA 2286 9h 39m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 6h 17m 57% 47%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 7h 26m 31% 26%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 16:20 → PHX 18:00WN 639 55m Phoenix PHX 18:55 → PDX 21:30WN 1682 7h 10m 48% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON