Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1711 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1711 BNA 05:16 → PHX 07:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 642 BNA 19:20 → PHX 20:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1711 Southwest	BNA 05:16	PHX 07:07	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 635 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:20	PHX 06:55	9%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 678 Southwest	BNA 08:36	PHX 10:28	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3770 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	PHX 09:40	15%	1%	0.2%	82%
AA 2112 American Flight history →	BNA 14:21	PHX 16:22	20%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 07:28	PHX 09:13	22%	4%	0.2%	81%
AA 2972 American Flight history →	BNA 14:20	PHX 16:04	25%	4%	0.8%	70%
WN 679 Southwest	BNA 13:20	PHX 15:03	26%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 639 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:20	PHX 18:00	33%	4%	0.4%	59%
WN 680 Southwest	BNA 16:35	PHX 18:27	33%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1490 Southwest	BNA 18:25	PHX 20:07	36%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 642 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:20	PHX 20:55	37%	5%	0.5%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON