Today: WN 1489 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet today WN 1489 BNA 10:00 → PIT 12:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 4473 BNA 20:25 → PIT 23:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1489 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:00	PIT 12:30	10%	1%	0.1%	70%
WN 4514 Southwest	BNA 10:26	PIT 13:04	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 684 Southwest	BNA 14:51	PIT 17:29	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 646 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	PIT 23:10	23%	6%	0.5%	50%
WN 4473 Southwest	BNA 20:25	PIT 23:03	24%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON