Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at Nashville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: United via Dulles, leaving 18:30, 45% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 18:30 → IAD 21:23UA 1460	47m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51UA 2064	4h 21m	62%	45%
Southwest Details →	BNA 18:05 → BWI 21:00WN 467	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → PWM 00:03 +1WN 4571	4h 58m	70%	33%
JetBlue Details →	BNA 18:03 → JFK 21:34B6 1174	1h 00m New York	JFK 22:34 → PWM 00:01 +1B6 308	4h 58m	48%	21%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON