Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 pm at Nashville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:55, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Richmond on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 18:55 → ATL 21:16DL 719	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 23:08 → RIC 00:49 +1DL 1175	4h 54m	82%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 19:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1497	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:49 → RIC 00:04 +1AA 1882	3h 45m	45%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON