Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 705 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 705 BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1978 BNA 20:20 → SAN 22:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 705 Southwest	BNA 08:05	SAN 10:10	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 659 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	SAN 10:15	14%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 4111 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:40	SAN 15:45	26%	3%	0.6%	36%
WN 1978 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:20	SAN 22:30	30%	5%	0.6%	40%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → SAN 09:10WN 2771	5h 50m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:10 → SAN 09:16WN 738	6h 06m	96%	82%
American Details →	BNA 08:01 → DFW 10:14AA 1515	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:02 → SAN 12:06AA 3109	6h 05m	78%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON