Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 711 at 08:14, 9%.

Safest bet today WN 711 BNA 08:14 → SAT 10:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4371 BNA 14:25 → SAT 16:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 711 Southwest	BNA 08:14	SAT 10:42	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 713 Southwest	BNA 22:15	SAT 00:43	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2269 Southwest	BNA 13:55	SAT 16:23	33%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4371 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:25	SAT 16:45	35%	4%	0.1%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON