Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 717 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 717 BNA 10:15 → SDF 12:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 671 BNA 20:30 → SDF 22:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 717 Southwest	BNA 10:15	SDF 12:20	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 670 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	SDF 12:00	13%	2%	0.5%	85%
WN 719 Southwest	BNA 20:29	SDF 22:34	28%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 671 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	SDF 22:30	31%	9%	0.5%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON