tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:15 am at Nashville)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: UA 1293 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet today UA 1293 BNA 06:31 → SFO 09:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 724 BNA 19:35 → SFO 22:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1293 United Flight history → BNA 06:31 SFO 09:20 21% 6% 0.2% 87%
UA 581 United BNA 15:00 SFO 18:03 22% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 626 United Flight history → BNA 08:00 SFO 10:38 23% 6% 0.2% 81%
UA 298 United Flight history → BNA 14:54 SFO 17:42 23% 5% 0.7% 60%
UA 2142 United Flight history → BNA 16:59 SFO 19:47 25% 5% 0.7% 61%
UA 276 United BNA 19:02 SFO 21:39 28% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 673 Southwest Flight history → BNA 17:15 SFO 19:55 31% 8% 0.5% 17%
WN 724 Southwest BNA 19:35 SFO 22:16 35% 9% 0.5% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 55m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → SFO 09:57WN 3471 6h 37m 87% 72%
UnitedDetails → BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502 1h 02m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 6h 43m 85% 68%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 1h 06m Los Angeles LAX 18:16 → SFO 19:42DL 2197 6h 43m 89% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON