Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:25 am at Nashville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3091 Southwest	BNA 12:45	SMF 15:20	25%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 4124 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:10	SMF 16:45	37%	4%	0.1%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828	9h 38m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	2h 10m Long Beach	LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507	7h 55m	97%	82%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 42m Denver	DEN 11:37 → SMF 13:09UA 2673	8h 09m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855	2h 30m Ontario	ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55WN 3170	8h 00m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 41m	95%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461	3h 00m Burbank	BUR 20:55 → SMF 22:24WN 1034	8h 44m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 11:45 → SMF 14:33WN 296	9h 48m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993	1h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 10:32 → SMF 12:09WN 442	7h 09m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BNA 18:03 → SEA 21:07AS 469	48m Seattle	SEA 21:55 → SMF 23:48AS 722	7h 45m	58%	44%
Southwest Details →	BNA 19:55 → MDW 21:39WN 647	51m Chicago	MDW 22:30 → SMF 00:48 +1WN 2994	6h 53m	56%	40%
United Details →	BNA 17:32 → DEN 19:40UA 2201	50m Denver	DEN 20:30 → SMF 22:11UA 1602	6h 39m	47%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON