Today: WN 683 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today WN 683 BNA 06:50 → TPA 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 685 BNA 15:20 → TPA 18:15 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 683 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:50	TPA 09:40	4%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 5020 Southwest	BNA 07:00	TPA 09:55	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 739 Southwest	BNA 09:25	TPA 12:20	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
AA 3825 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 08:31	TPA 11:25	11%	2%	0.5%	75%
MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:20	TPA 12:19	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2651 Southwest	BNA 12:20	TPA 15:15	22%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 13:30	TPA 16:24	25%	4%	0.7%	77%
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:00	TPA 16:57	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2173 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:25	TPA 00:20	25%	8%	0.7%	73%
WN 744 Southwest	BNA 20:30	TPA 23:25	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2877 Southwest	BNA 18:12	TPA 21:06	33%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 742 Southwest	BNA 15:26	TPA 18:21	40%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 685 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:20	TPA 18:15	42%	6%	0.4%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON