Today: WN 4208 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet today WN 4208 BNA 08:15 → TUL 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 746 BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4208 Southwest	BNA 08:15	TUL 10:04	5%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 690 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:10	TUL 09:45	8%	1%	0.1%	88%
WN 746 Southwest	BNA 22:15	TUL 00:02	19%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON