Today: AS 3116 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet today AS 3116 BOI 09:06 → BUR 10:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 697 BOI 16:35 → BUR 17:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3116 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 09:06	BUR 10:19	13%	6%	0.4%	92%
WN 1515 Southwest	BOI 13:55	BUR 15:13	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 3415 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:09	BUR 11:31	15%	7%	0.4%	88%
WN 697 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 16:35	BUR 17:30	24%	7%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON