Today: AA 1107 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–31%.

Safest bet today AA 1107 BOI 06:21 → DFW 10:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1531 BOI 15:54 → DFW 20:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1107 American Flight history →	BOI 06:21	DFW 10:34	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1320 American	BOI 12:19	DFW 16:34	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1529 American Flight history →	BOI 12:15	DFW 16:34	27%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 2019 American	BOI 14:40	DFW 18:54	29%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1531 American Flight history →	BOI 15:54	DFW 20:15	31%	9%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON