Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:28 am at Boise); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2017 Delta Flight history →	BOI 10:29	MSP 14:11	9%	4%	0.1%	88%
DL 2982 Delta Flight history →	BOI 14:50	MSP 18:37	14%	4%	0.1%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOI 08:45 → MDW 13:05WN 4432	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 14:05 → MSP 15:36WN 2421	5h 51m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BOI 13:05 → SLC 14:18DL 1442	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	6h 49m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BOI 08:25 → SLC 09:44DL 3607 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 15m	95%	84%
American Details →	BOI 15:10 → ORD 19:59AA 2340	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	8h 12m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	BOI 10:25 → DEN 12:20WN 699	1h 37m Denver	DEN 13:57 → MSP 16:59WN 277	5h 34m	98%	84%
United Details →	BOI 10:20 → DEN 12:27UA 6041 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 26m	97%	82%
United Details →	BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10UA 5386 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 48m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:26DL 1744	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 31m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395	1h 09m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	5h 13m	74%	55%
United Details →	BOI 14:00 → SFO 14:58UA 4661 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 16:10 → MSP 21:57UA 648	6h 57m	70%	53%
Delta Details →	BOI 10:35 → SEA 11:26DL 3750 · flown by SkyWest	46m Seattle	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:34DL 536	5h 59m	19%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON