Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:19 am at Boise)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 768 at 18:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops today


WN 768 Southwest	BOI 18:50	OAK 19:46	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 15:25	OAK 16:05	24%	4%	0.2%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 54m	99%	97%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	3h 09m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	6h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOI 08:25 → SLC 09:44DL 3607 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:26DL 1744	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	BOI 16:35 → BUR 17:30WN 697	2h 54m Burbank	BUR 20:24 → OAK 21:48WN 1145	6h 13m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	BOI 06:23 → SEA 07:00AS 423	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:10 → OAK 11:18AS 533	5h 55m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BOI 07:10 → DEN 09:00WN 698	1h 55m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	6h 15m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704	56m Las Vegas	LAS 21:21 → OAK 23:00WN 294	4h 20m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON