tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:06 am at Boise)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, OO 3001 at 16:56, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3001 SkyWest BOI 16:56 ONT 18:23 17% 9% 0.7% no record
AS 2025 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BOI 14:31 ONT 15:38 18% 6% 1.9% 82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470 1h 21m Phoenix PHX 07:51 → ONT 09:15WN 1919 4h 50m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:42 → ONT 11:43DL 1173 6h 43m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701 2h 32m Las Vegas LAS 09:17 → ONT 10:28WN 276 5h 28m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:30 → SMF 06:55WN 715 2h 55m Sacramento SMF 09:50 → ONT 11:26WN 3947 5h 56m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 05:57 → PDX 06:17AS 1566 1h 19m Portland PDX 07:36 → ONT 09:56AS 1449 4h 59m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:26DL 1744 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 11:10 → SMF 11:40WN 716 2h 20m Sacramento SMF 14:00 → ONT 15:35WN 3949 5h 25m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 06m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BOI 20:28 → PDX 20:46AS 2371 · flown by Horizon 48m Portland PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:01 +1AS 534 4h 33m 58% 49%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704 51m Las Vegas LAS 21:16 → ONT 22:27WN 2897 3h 47m 67% 48%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 17:55 → PHX 19:05WN 711 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 20:10 → ONT 21:34WN 1734 4h 39m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON