Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 1566 BOI 05:57 → PDX 06:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3148 BOI 20:25 → PDX 20:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1566 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 05:57	PDX 06:17	5%	2%	0.3%	94%
AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:02	PDX 06:31	5%	2%	0.3%	94%
AS 1314 Alaska	BOI 09:13	PDX 09:42	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
AS 381 Alaska	BOI 13:33	PDX 14:02	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 229 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 16:23	PDX 16:45	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
OO 3148 SkyWest	BOI 20:25	PDX 20:59	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 2184 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 09:13	PDX 09:34	6%	6%	3.8%	94%
AS 2209 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:29	PDX 13:47	6%	2%	0.0%	94%
AS 2371 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:28	PDX 20:46	31%	15%	0.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON