Today: WN 202 at 11:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet today WN 202 BOI 11:20 → PHX 12:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 711 BOI 17:55 → PHX 19:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 202 Southwest	BOI 11:20	PHX 12:40	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 6475 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:11	PHX 09:30	14%	5%	0.3%	92%
AA 4921 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:05	PHX 09:31	14%	6%	0.3%	78%
OO 3319 SkyWest	BOI 14:32	PHX 15:59	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 3095 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 14:55	PHX 16:14	25%	7%	0.2%	96%worse than usual
AA 4948 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:57	PHX 15:16	26%	6%	0.2%	83%
AA 2888 American	BOI 13:59	PHX 15:08	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3492 Southwest	BOI 16:45	PHX 18:04	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
OO 4919 SkyWest	BOI 17:31	PHX 18:58	32%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 4934 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 17:20	PHX 18:40	33%	9%	0.2%	73%
WN 711 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 17:55	PHX 19:05	35%	5%	0.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON