Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 713 BOI 21:55 → SAN 23:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest WN 3299 BOI 17:15 → SAN 18:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 713 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 21:55	SAN 23:10	25%	7%	0.6%	50%
WN 3299 Southwest	BOI 17:15	SAN 18:41	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
AS 2342 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:00	SAN 21:22	56%	12%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON