Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3418 BOI 07:22 → SJC 08:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 714 BOI 12:20 → SJC 13:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3418 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 07:22	SJC 08:27	4%	2%	0.2%	92%
AS 3131 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 07:37	SJC 08:32	4%	2%	0.2%	98%
WN 770 Southwest	BOI 12:45	SJC 13:49	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 714 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 12:20	SJC 13:05	10%	2%	0.5%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON