Today: AS 1605 at 10:28 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–30%.

Safest bet today AS 1605 BOI 10:28 → SNA 11:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest G4 1586 BOI 17:37 → SNA 19:03 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1605 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 10:28	SNA 11:45	18%	5%	0.5%	83%
AS 233 Alaska	BOI 10:52	SNA 12:18	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
G4 1586 Allegiant	BOI 17:37	SNA 19:03	30%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON