Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2242 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2242 BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1897 BOS 19:51 → ATL 22:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2242 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	ATL 08:21	6%	1%	0.9%	96%
DL 9967 Delta	BOS 05:32	ATL 08:33	7%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 923 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:00	ATL 10:51	9%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 456 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:05	ATL 11:55	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 9964 Delta	BOS 06:03	ATL 08:59	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 695 Delta Flight history →	BOS 00:20	ATL 02:27	11%	4%	0.4%	87%
DL 385 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:15	ATL 13:04	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 322 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:55	ATL 16:49	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2779 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ATL 15:21	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 900 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:40	ATL 23:55	15%	8%	0.8%	68%
DL 973 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:10	ATL 22:24	16%	6%	0.8%	81%
DL 638 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:10	ATL 18:10	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:30	ATL 19:38	19%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 2464 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	ATL 21:07	20%	6%	0.8%	75%
B6 1097 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:30	ATL 11:16	30%	7%	0.8%	79%
B6 1397 JetBlue	BOS 13:24	ATL 16:30	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 3511 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:59	ATL 14:53	37%	12%	1.2%	69%
B6 1897 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:51	ATL 22:45	46%	21%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON