Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1410 at 06:30, 20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:30 → AUS 09:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1439 BOS 10:07 → AUS 13:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:30	AUS 09:44	20%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:25	AUS 16:46	27%	5%	0.7%	76%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 07:55	AUS 11:10	30%	5%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
DL 1677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:59	AUS 22:26	31%	12%	0.7%	62%
WN 3347 Southwest	BOS 15:10	AUS 18:59	39%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 639 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:21	AUS 17:45	42%	14%	0.6%	58%
B6 1439 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:07	AUS 13:55	46%	16%	0.8%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752	1h 10m St Louis	STL 08:35 → AUS 10:49WN 4458	6h 14m	100%	86%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56UA 637	6h 11m	94%	74%
Southwest Details →	BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727	51m Baltimore	BWI 08:11 → AUS 10:57WN 948	6h 12m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON