Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 778 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 778 BOS 05:15 → BNA 07:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 507 BOS 16:55 → BNA 18:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 778 Southwest	BOS 05:15	BNA 07:08	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:28	BNA 08:30	13%	4%	0.5%	88%
WN 2650 Southwest	BOS 09:40	BNA 11:36	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
B6 1207 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:19	BNA 08:10	14%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:20	BNA 10:16	14%	4%	0.3%	79%
WN 724 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 10:30	BNA 12:05	16%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	23%	6%	0.8%	76%
WN 781 Southwest	BOS 12:55	BNA 14:54	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 725 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 14:10	BNA 15:50	25%	7%	0.5%	41%
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:41	BNA 15:48	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	27%	10%	0.8%	60%
WN 784 Southwest	BOS 18:05	BNA 20:07	31%	13%	0.5%	no record
B6 907 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:48	BNA 20:58	31%	14%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
WN 1292 Southwest	BOS 19:30	BNA 21:33	36%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2338 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 20:00	BNA 21:45	37%	13%	0.5%	30%
B6 507 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:55	BNA 18:49	41%	13%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON