Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5674 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5674 BOS 08:30 → CLE 10:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 641 BOS 13:46 → CLE 15:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:30	CLE 10:35	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	12%	6%	0.6%	86%
B6 2041 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:43	CLE 10:46	19%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	20%	10%	0.7%	62%
B6 641 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:46	CLE 15:45	22%	7%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON