Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5626 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 5626 BOS 06:25 → CLT 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1552 BOS 18:55 → CLT 21:33 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	CLT 08:56	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	9%	3%	1.2%	96%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:05	CLT 12:35	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1462 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	CLT 09:31	11%	3%	1.2%	95%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:13	CLT 16:54	14%	6%	0.6%	80%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	14%	4%	1.2%	88%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	BOS 10:13	CLT 12:38	15%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 1348 American Flight history →	BOS 08:10	CLT 10:34	15%	4%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
AA 3161 American Flight history →	BOS 11:20	CLT 13:45	15%	5%	1.3%	86%
AA 2358 American	BOS 10:20	CLT 12:43	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	17%	10%	0.7%	66%
AA 504 American	BOS 11:31	CLT 13:54	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1611 American Flight history →	BOS 14:26	CLT 17:00	20%	7%	1.3%	86%
AA 1270 American	BOS 12:50	CLT 15:14	24%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 889 American	BOS 15:02	CLT 17:24	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1573 American Flight history →	BOS 16:46	CLT 19:28	31%	10%	1.3%	67%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	BOS 18:55	CLT 21:33	31%	10%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON