Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4399 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4399 BOS 08:09 → CMH 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5629 BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4399 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:09	CMH 10:30	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:11	CMH 10:31	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
YX 4373 Republic	BOS 09:11	CMH 11:33	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3470 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 12:40	CMH 14:56	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 4692 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:41	CMH 16:01	12%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:38	CMH 16:58	13%	7%	0.6%	82%
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:55	CMH 21:16	16%	9%	0.7%	69%
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	19%	10%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON