Today: DL 5601 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet today DL 5601 BOS 08:45 → CVG 11:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3408 BOS 18:20 → CVG 21:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:45	CVG 11:12	11%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:12	CVG 16:45	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 4760 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:35	CVG 12:15	12%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 5801 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:45	CVG 23:16	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
DL 5620 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	CVG 19:40	18%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 5598 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:40	CVG 14:07	19%	4%	0.5%	86%
AA 3408 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 18:20	CVG 21:00	30%	7%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON