Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 597 Southwest	BOS 17:35	DAL 21:06	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 737 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DAL 21:00	34%	10%	0.5%	39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752	1h 05m St Louis	STL 08:30 → DAL 10:21WN 987	5h 46m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239	2h 41m Chicago	MDW 09:41 → DAL 12:05WN 2864	7h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	BOS 06:25 → DEN 08:50WN 4156	1h 58m Denver	DEN 10:48 → DAL 13:46WN 1408	8h 21m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BOS 07:30 → MDW 09:10WN 745	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	8h 05m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 08:45 → DAL 11:11WN 698	6h 26m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	BOS 07:55 → AUS 11:10WN 375	2h 52m Austin	AUS 14:02 → DAL 15:12WN 3857	8h 17m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 54m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BOS 14:20 → MCI 16:40WN 743	2h 45m Kansas City	MCI 19:25 → DAL 20:55WN 2540	7h 35m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BOS 18:50 → STL 20:55WN 754	55m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	5h 40m	72%	57%
Southwest Details →	BOS 17:20 → BWI 19:10WN 1898	50m Baltimore	BWI 20:00 → DAL 22:10WN 693	5h 50m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON