Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 801 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 BOS 05:00 → DEN 07:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 993 BOS 19:59 → DEN 22:41 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest	BOS 05:00	DEN 07:27	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4156 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 06:25	DEN 08:50	10%	2%	0.1%	88%
UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:19	11%	4%	0.2%	91%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:21	11%	4%	0.2%	85%
B6 493 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:30	DEN 09:03	13%	5%	0.4%	87%
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:30	DEN 12:16	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 662 United Flight history →	BOS 09:40	DEN 12:12	18%	4%	0.2%	91%
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:17	DEN 11:56	18%	7%	0.3%	79%
WN 4208 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 11:35	DEN 14:05	20%	4%	0.5%	70%
WN 802 Southwest	BOS 10:10	DEN 12:40	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2433 United Flight history →	BOS 20:39	DEN 23:26	25%	9%	0.6%	56%
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	28%	7%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
B6 793 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:20	DEN 13:55	30%	7%	0.6%	60%
UA 1932 United	BOS 20:50	DEN 23:15	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 800 United Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DEN 19:45	31%	9%	0.6%	75%
WN 742 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 17:30	DEN 20:10	37%	10%	0.5%	29%
WN 809 Southwest	BOS 16:55	DEN 19:25	41%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 993 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:59	DEN 22:41	45%	16%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752	1h 10m St Louis	STL 08:35 → DEN 09:57WN 4062	6h 22m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 08m	89%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON