Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1019 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1019 BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 1337 BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1019 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	DTW 07:38	5%	2%	0.4%	95%
DL 2222 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:10	DTW 15:20	15%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 1748 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:15	DTW 11:24	16%	4%	0.4%	88%
B6 837 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:30	DTW 10:49	20%	7%	0.3%	79%
DL 2896 Delta Flight history →	BOS 21:05	DTW 23:21	25%	6%	0.6%	56%
DL 1432 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	DTW 19:39	26%	9%	0.6%	70%
B6 1237 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:38	DTW 17:49	39%	13%	0.7%	65%
B6 1337 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:33	DTW 22:45	42%	16%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON