Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5764 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–50%.

Safest bet that day DL 5764 BOS 06:25 → EWR 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1647 BOS 17:44 → EWR 19:15 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	EWR 07:54	6%	2%	1.6%	94%
UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	7%	2%	1.2%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	10%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:30	EWR 10:58	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:58	EWR 12:26	15%	5%	0.8%	88%
UA 2104 United	BOS 12:25	EWR 13:49	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:55	EWR 14:22	28%	8%	0.8%	71%
UA 1076 United Flight history →	BOS 14:31	EWR 16:03	31%	13%	0.9%	78%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	33%	13%	1.0%	60%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:27	EWR 22:00	37%	16%	0.9%	64%
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 17:44	EWR 19:15	50%	18%	0.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON