Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1401 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 1401 BOS 07:55 → FLL 11:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 2269 BOS 16:39 → FLL 20:10 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:55	FLL 11:24	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
B6 569 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:10	FLL 08:30	15%	5%	0.5%	82%
B6 669 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:54	FLL 11:20	21%	5%	0.6%	83%
B6 69 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:25	FLL 11:47	23%	5%	0.6%	68%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:32	FLL 19:04	31%	5%	0.6%	62%
B6 369 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:10	FLL 21:36	39%	14%	0.7%	62%
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:45	FLL 18:11	41%	10%	0.6%	59%
B6 2269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:39	FLL 20:10	44%	10%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON