Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1409 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1409 BOS 05:47 → IAH 08:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 933 BOS 14:29 → IAH 17:41 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1409 United Flight history →	BOS 05:47	IAH 08:50	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 226 United Flight history →	BOS 07:25	IAH 10:35	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1976 United Flight history →	BOS 13:37	IAH 16:57	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 396 United	BOS 10:00	IAH 13:23	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1183 United Flight history →	BOS 15:54	IAH 19:08	25%	8%	0.6%	71%
B6 2033 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:15	IAH 12:23	27%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1392 United Flight history →	BOS 17:35	IAH 20:55	30%	9%	0.6%	64%
B6 933 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:29	IAH 17:41	36%	13%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON