Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5597 at 08:50, 24%.

Safest bet that day DL 5597 BOS 08:50 → JAX 11:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 509 BOS 17:10 → JAX 20:07 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:50	JAX 11:44	24%	4%	1.0%	83%
B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:05	JAX 09:56	30%	10%	1.4%	85%worse than usual
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:35	JAX 18:41	34%	10%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
DL 5593 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	JAX 23:39	37%	13%	1.2%	71%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	JAX 20:07	44%	17%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON